國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）近日宣布中國人民幣匯率“估值合理”，這是IMF逾10年來首次更改人民幣被“低估”的評判。這意味着人民幣匯率形成機制改革取得實質性進展，並有望在2015年被納入IMF特別提款權（SDR）貨幣籃子。

IMF官員認為，其評估一直是人民幣在2014年溫和低估。然而，自去年以來，人民幣實際有效匯率非常顯著升值。事實確實如此。國際清算銀行數據顯示，自2005年人民幣匯率形成機制改革至去年末，人民幣名義有效匯率升值40.51%，實際有效匯率升值51.04%。其中2014年末人民幣實際有效匯率指數為126.16，名義有效匯率指數為121.53，全年漲幅分別為6.24%和6.41%，雖然較2013年漲幅放緩，但是在國際清算銀行監測的61種貨幣中，人民幣名義和實際有效匯率升幅分別排其監測貨幣的第一和第二位。

近幾年，中國貨幣當局推進人民幣形成機制改革的步伐一直沒有停歇。人民幣匯率浮動幅度已經從0.3%、0.5%、1.0%擴大至目前的2%。在政策立場上，中國也沒有刻意追求順差，2008年全球金融危機以來，中國“擴內需、調結構、減順差、促平衡”，經常項目收支已經趨向平衡，進口保持了年均17%以上的速度，是歷史上最長的一個進口穩定快速增長期。近年來，中國經常賬戶順差已顯著收窄，從2007年接近GDP的10%，下降至2010年的國際認可的合理標準以內，並降至去年的2%左右，且連續五年控制在4%以內。

一直以來，國際上人民幣“匯率低估論”、“匯率操縱論”在理論和實證上並不成立。就中美貿易不平衡而言，也不能歸咎於是人民幣匯率低估的產物，中國持有的大額外匯儲備也不是人民幣低估的結果。近期，哈佛大學經濟學教授馬丁·費爾德斯坦在英國《金融時報》發文指出，美國應停止發佈匯率操縱報告。他認為正如每個經濟學專業的學生知道的那樣，每個國家的經常賬戶狀況更大程度上是由本國內部結構決定的，而不是由其貿易夥伴決定的。

然而，人民幣一直背負着被低估以及導致全球失衡，特別是中美失衡的責任。因此，打破單邊被動升值魔咒，完善人民幣匯率形成機制，增強人民幣匯率彈性勢在必行。1994年中國就開啟了人民幣匯率形成機制的市場化改革，開始實行以市場供求為基礎、單一的有管理的浮動匯率制度。2005年7月進行匯率改革，開始實行以市場為基礎的、參考一籃子貨幣進行調節的、有管理的浮動匯率制度，並將銀行間即期外匯市場人民幣對美元日波幅限定為千分之三。此後，2007年、2012年、2014年持續將波幅擴大至2%。2014年中國央行明確表示未來將基本退出常態化外匯干預，逐步擺脫依靠外匯占款供應基礎貨幣的模式，逐步增強貨幣定價的自主權。

事實也是如此，2014年以來全球貨幣戰愈演愈烈，除巴西為抵禦通脹逆勢加息之外，土耳其、丹麥、瑞士、印度、埃及、加拿大央行紛紛降低基準利率或實施寬鬆政策，降息潮已席捲全球24家央行。越來越多的央行重新推行擴張性貨幣政策，全球競爭性貨幣貶值潮正拉開新一輪序幕，但中國並不會加入全球貨幣戰爭。與此同時，其他新興經濟體大都經歷了大幅貨幣貶值。巴西的實際有效匯率下降16%，俄羅斯盧布下降了32%，印度盧比下降了12%。從匯率變動效果看，如果各國都實施競爭性貨幣貶值，貶值效應將相互抵消，對刺激出口的效果有限。

從貨幣立場看，兼顧市場供求和籃子貨幣匯率，引導市場預期，維持人民幣匯率穩定是主要目標，中國不會加入全球貨幣戰，也不會任由貨幣大幅貶值。人民幣匯率保持基本穩定，甚至是小幅向下波動對於維持金融資產穩定，防範大規模資本外流風險，控制海外負債風險，降低債務負擔，以及穩定經濟增長預期都是有利的，符合當前中國經濟利益，更符合人民幣國際化的長遠目標。

毫無疑問，人民幣支付價值的上升和國際社會對人民幣估值合理的認可，在人民幣國際化進程中佔據重要地位，具有里程碑意義。環球同業銀行金融電訊協會（SWIFT）數據顯示，目前人民幣是全球第二大貿易融資貨幣，也是全球第五大最被廣泛使用的交易貨幣。可以預見，隨着人民幣匯率形成機制改革成熟，以及資本賬戶開放的推進，人民幣被納入SDR已經是大勢所趨。

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced in May that the Chinese currency, known as the renminbi (RMB) or the yuan, is “fairly valued.” This is the first time in more than a decade that the IMF changed its “undervalued” assessment about the RMB. This proves the substantive progress made in the exchange-rate formation mechanism and bodes well for the inclusion of the RMB into the Special Drawing Rights currency basket of the IMF before the end of 2015.

IMF officials said the IMF always evaluated the RMB as “mildly undervalued,” including in 2014. Since last year, however, the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has “significantly appreciated.” Data also support this assessment. According to statistics released by the Bank for International Settlements, since the reforms adopted on the RMB exchange-rate formation mechanism in 2005, the nominal effective exchange rate of the RMB had appreciated 40.51% while the real effective exchange rate had risen 51.04%. At the end of 2014, the real effective exchange-rate index stood at 126.16 and the nominal effective exchange rate was 121.53, showing an annual rise of 6.24% and 6.41%, respectively. Although the growth rates slowed slightly compared with 2013, the appreciation rates of the nominal and real effective exchange rates of the RMB among the 61 currencies tracked by the BIS ranked first and second, respectively.

In the past few years, the Chinese monetary authority has never ceased its efforts in reforming the RMB exchange-rate formation mechanism. The fluctuation band for the RMB exchange rate has gradually been widened, from 0.3%, 0.5% and 1.0% to the current 2%. On the policy front, China does not intend to pursue a surplus. Since the global financial crisis in 2008, China has been implementing a policy of “stimulating domestic demand, adjusting the structure, reducing the surplus and working to strike a balance,” has gradually achieved a balance of international payments under current account, and has maintained an annual growth rate of more than 17% in imports. This was the longest streak in history in which imports maintained a stable and fast growth. In recent years, China's surplus under the current account has contracted remarkably, from about 10% of the GDP in 2007 to a level within the internationally recognized reasonable standard in 2010, and down further to about 2% in 2014. Furthermore, it has been controlled below the level of 5% for five consecutive years.

The long-hyped view of RMB “undervaluation” and “currency manipulation” is no longer a serious contention. In terms of the imbalance in China-US trade, it was not the outcome of the so-called undervalued RMB exchange rate, nor was China's massive foreign exchange reserves the result of the undervalued exchange rate. Martin Feldstein, professor of economics at Harvard University, recently pointed out in his article in the Financial Times that the United States should bring an end to publishing the semiannual report on international exchange-rate policies. As every student of economics knows, he said, the current account balance of a country is actually determined by its domestic structures, and is not decided by its trading partners.

The RMB, however, has always been considered to be “undervalued” and has been blamed as the culprit for global imbalance, particularly the imbalance between China and the United States. It is therefore urgent to put an end to the unilateral, passive appreciation, improve the exchange-rate formation mechanism, and increase the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate. China launched market-oriented reforms on the RMB exchange-rate mechanism in 1994 and adopted the managed floating exchange-rate system based on market supply. In July 2005, China further reformed the exchange-rate system, and began to adopt the managed floating exchange-rate system based on market supply and adjusted with reference to the rates of a basket of currencies, and set the daily fluctuation band of the RMB against the US dollar on the interbank spot foreign exchange market at 0.3%. And in 2007, 2012 and 2014, the fluctuation band was further widened and eventually to the current 2%. In 2014, the central bank (the People's Bank of China) clearly indicated that it would exit from regular foreign exchange intervention in the future, gradually abandon the model of supplying base currency according to funds outstanding for foreign exchange, and increase the autonomy in currency pricing.

Facts speak louder. With a “global currency war” sweeping across the world since 2014, excluding Brazil which hiked interest rates to fight inflation, the central banks of Turkey, Denmark, Switzerland, India, Egypt and Canada have all joined the wave of cutting benchmark interest rates or adopting a loose monetary policy, and the central banks of 24 countries chose to cut interest rates. With more and more central banks resorting to the expansionary monetary policies again and a new wave of competitive currency depreciation, China did not choose to join the “global currency war.” A flood of significant currency depreciation also hit other emerging economies. The real effective exchange rate of Brazil's real dropped 16%, the rouble of Russia declined 32% and the Indian rupee dropped 12%. Judging from the effect of exchange rates, if all countries compete to depreciate their currencies, the effect from currency depreciation would be offset and the effect in stimulating exports would be very limited.

In terms of the currency stance, the main goals are to give consideration to market supply and the exchange rates of basket currencies, to guide market expectations and to maintain a stable RMB exchange rate. China will not jump on the bandwagon of the “global currency war,” nor will it allow the RMB to depreciate massively. To keep the RMB exchange rate stable or even allow it to fluctuate downward by a small margin, it will be constructive in keeping the financial assets stable, preventing the risk of massive capital outflows, controlling the risk of overseas debts, lowering the debt burden and stabilizing expectations for economic growth. This is in the best interest of the Chinese economy and conforms with the long-term goal of the RMB's internationalization.

The rise in RMB value in international payments and the recognition of a reasonable level of the RMB value by the international community clearly represent a milestone. According to data from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication, the RMB is now the second most-used currency for trade and financing, and the fifth most-used payment currency in the world. It could be predicted that with the maturity of the RMB exchange-rate formation mechanism and the opening of the capital account, it would be natural for the RMB to be included in the SDR basket of currencies.