2025年7月28日，巴勒斯坦總理穆罕默德·穆斯塔法在聯大發表講話。一周前，17國、歐盟和阿拉伯聯盟簽署了《紐約宣言》。（美聯社照片）

最近，聯合國一個高級別會議敦促以色列承諾支持建立巴勒斯坦國，並“堅定不移地支持”兩國方案。這份《紐約宣言》提出一個分階段實施計劃，以結束持續80年的衝突和當前的加沙災難。

在法國和沙特阿拉伯、歐盟、阿拉伯聯盟及其他15個國家的共同主持下，會議期望建立一個獨立、非軍事化的巴勒斯坦國，與以色列和平共處，並最終融入整個中東地區。

中國上周加入《紐約宣言》。正如外交部發言人郭嘉昆所言：“我們支持任何有助於推動巴勒斯坦問題政治解決的努力，……為最終實現巴勒斯坦問題全面、公正、持久解決作出不懈努力。”

巴勒斯坦乃至整個中東地區正處於關鍵轉折點。幾十年來，美國推動的“關係正常化”行動給該地區造成的破壞越來越嚴重，該地區迫切需要一種由中國和全球南方最大經濟體倡導的和平發展模式。

美國的實效中東戰略

拜登政府中東計劃（即所謂“大交易”）的基礎是以特朗普第一屆政府的《亞伯拉罕協議》。此前以色列曾與埃及（1979年）和約旦（1994年）簽署和平條約，並與巴勒斯坦民族權力機構（1993-95年）簽署《奧斯陸協議》，這些協議的前提條件，是以色列同阿拉伯世界特別是阿聯酋和巴林實現了關係正常化。美國作為幕後策劃者，又分別於2020年9月和2021年1月宣布與摩洛哥和蘇丹達成交易。而這筆“大交易”的前提，是中國在中東的貿易投資被邊緣化，以及巴勒斯坦人被排擠。

然而，自從加沙衝突、以色列無情轟炸以及拜登支持內塔尼亞胡戰爭內閣以來，以色列與海灣國家的互信被侵蝕，談判陷入停滯。某種意義上說，這是美國“實效”中東戰略的邏輯效果，與修辭上的外交立場是截然相反的。畢竟，真金白銀不是用於和談，而是軍售。

美國是中東所有主要軍事大國的武器供應商。對最親密的盟友（以色列、科威特、沙特），美國提供60%至80%的致命武器進口。在其他國家（阿聯酋、伊拉克、卡塔爾），美國占軍火總進口的50%至60%。然後是埃及（34%），它的主要供貨商是美國的北約盟友（德國、意大利）以及俄羅斯。

美國在中東的軍售

武器進口估算額。這些國家是美國在中東軍售的最大買家（來源：斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所）

武器源源不斷地流入這個動蕩地區，是造成該地區地緣政治不穩和經濟不確定的主要原因，尤其是考慮到美國和以色列的軍事共生關係。

鑒於以色列面臨國際法院和國際刑事法院有關種族滅絕的指控，此類武器轉讓似乎違反國際慣例法，其中有國際法委員會的《國家責任條款草案》和《國際人道法》（包括1949年《日內瓦四公約》的共同第1條）。

美國和以色列均否認此類指控。而且，華盛頓對國際刑事法院及其檢察機關施加了強硬制裁。

中國對中東的“一帶一路”立場

過去十來年，中國已成為中東各利益攸關方所信賴的和平調解人。在美國因為軍援和實施政權更迭而聲名狼藉的國家，中國進行了大量投資。北京還數次取得外交上的成功。

幾十年來，美國政府助長了沙特和伊朗（中東地緣政治中的遜尼派和什葉派領袖）之間的分歧。然而2023年3月，這兩個國家在中國斡旋下達成協議，宣布恢復雙邊關係。經曆數十年美國主導的制裁後，伊朗希望專事經濟發展，利雅得則意圖實現“沙特2030願景”，即經濟更加多元，減少石油依賴。

2024年7月，中國在促進巴勒斯坦民族團結方面發揮了關鍵作用，後來人們稱之為《北京宣言》。該宣言由14個巴勒斯坦派別簽署，其中最有名的是法塔赫和哈馬斯。隨後幾周，以色列在美國武器和軍費支持下，加強了針對這些巴勒斯坦領導人的暗殺行動，包括最近對多哈的襲擊。

2015年，經過多年艱辛談判，伊朗、美國和一些世界大國達成一項核協議（《聯合全面行動計劃》）。儘管伊朗遵守了協議，但特朗普政府於2018年宣布美國退出。在白宮，由於德黑蘭巨大的地區經濟和地緣政治重要性，伊朗政權更迭仍然是誘人的。

中國擁有伊朗多個油氣田的專用權。作為2016-2017年協議的一部分，部分中國軍方領導人認為，北京會將外國對這些地區的攻擊視為對其主權領土的攻擊。兩年後，伊朗加入中國“一帶一路”倡議。2021年3月，兩國簽署為期25年的4000億美元戰略合作協議。（儘管有這些協議，以色列仍於2024年襲擊了伊朗，美國在2025年6月轟炸了伊朗核設施。）

2024年8月，北京為其承諾發出更強烈信號：在該地區開闢第二條“絲綢之路”。此前，中國對沙特股市進行了大規模投資，六家中國主要金融機構與沙特簽署了價值500億美元的諒解備忘錄。2025年7月，中國和埃及擴大了各經濟領域的雙邊合作。

中國在中東經濟影響力不斷增強一直是華盛頓極為關注的問題。

丹·斯坦博克博士的《以色列的陷落》（2024）和《毀滅主義》（2025）

美國外交政策軍事化

然而，真正的問題不在於加沙、伊朗或中國，而在於美國外交政策的嚴重軍事化。2012年9月，前美國駐阿富汗大使、聯軍司令卡爾·溫弗雷德·艾肯伯里警告稱，過去50年來，美國的外交政策變得“過度依賴軍事力量”。憑藉在全球的軍事網絡，美國建國以來一直處於戰爭狀態，作戰或以其他方式在外國使用軍事力量，只有11年未打仗。

自2010年代後期第一個美國基地在以色列設立以來，以色列的軍事行動急劇升級，加沙災難、襲擊黎巴嫩和敘利亞等阿拉伯鄰國、打擊伊朗和也門，以及最近襲擊卡塔爾（美國在該地區的重要盟友）就是明證。

1945年以來，華盛頓一直有製造中東政權更迭和局勢動蕩的黑色記錄。僅“911”事件後的戰爭就損失8萬多億美元和讓100多萬人喪生。而在加沙，美國因提供大規模軍援和資助敵對行動，成為種族滅絕暴行的同謀。這一災難正促使特朗普的白宮反思，據報道，以埃爾布里奇·科爾比為首的五角大樓官員建議國防部優先保衛美國本土和西半球。這是對軍方重點關注“中國威脅”的大逆轉，對此華盛頓新保守主義者是難以接受的。

然而一個簡單的事實是，美國實施破壞中東穩定政策的時代已經結束，由中國和全球南方國家主導的經濟發展時代已經到來。

毀滅性戰爭無法解決21世紀的挑戰。

Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Mustafa, foreground, arrives to address the United Nations General Assembly on July 28, 2025. Seventeen countries, the European Union, and the Arab League endorsed the New York Declaration a week ago. (Photo: Richard Drew/AP)

Recently, a high-level UN conference urged Israel to commit to a Palestinian state and gave “unwavering support” to a two-state solution. The “New York Declaration” set out a phased plan to end the eight-decade conflict and the ongoing Gaza catastrophe.

Co-chaired by France and Saudi Arabia, the EU, the Arab League and 15 countries, the conference envisioned an independent, demilitarized Palestine living side by side peacefully with Israel, and their eventual integration into the broader Middle East.

Last week, China joined the New York Declaration. As foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun stated, “we support all efforts that are conducive to the political settlement of the question…, and the ultimate, comprehensive, just and lasting resolution of the Palestinian question.”

Palestine and thereby the broader Middle East are now at a critical inflection point. For decades, U.S. efforts at “normalization” have unleashed ever-greater devastation in the region, which is crying for a peaceful development scenario, championed by China and the largest economies of the Global South.

America's effective Middle East strategy

The Biden administration's Middle East plan – the “grand bargain” – built on the first Trump administration's Abraham Accords, which were preceded by Israel's peace treaties with Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994) and the Oslo Accords with the Palestinian Authority (1993–95). These accords are premised on Arab-Israeli normalization, particularly between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain. With the U.S. as the behind-the-façade architect, deals with Morocco and Sudan were announced between September 2020 and January 2021, respectively. The grand bargain was premised on the marginalization of Chinese trade and investment presence in the Middle East – and on the sidelining of the Palestinians.

Yet, ever since the Gaza hostilities, Israel's relentless bombing and Biden's support of Netanyahu's war cabinet, the talks have stalled as bilateral trust between Israel and the Gulf states has eroded. In a sense, this is the logical effect of America's effective Middle East strategy, as opposed to its rhetorical diplomatic stance. After all, the real money is not in peace talks, but in arms sales.

America is the court supplier of all major military powers in the Middle East. In the case of its closest allies, the U.S. provides 60 to 80 percent of their lethal imports (Israel, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia). In the rest, it accounts for 50 to 60 percent of the total (UAE, Iraq, Qatar), followed by Egypt (34%) whose primary suppliers are mainly America's NATO allies (Germany, Italy), as well as Russia.

U.S. Arms Sales in the Middle East

Estimated military value of arms imports. These countries include the largest recipients of US arms sales in the Middle East (Source: SIPRI)

The steady, progressive flow of arms into the troubled region has been the primary contributor to its geopolitical volatility and economic uncertainty, particularly in the light of the military symbiosis between the U.S. and Israel.

In the context of Israel facing ICJ and ICC charges related to genocide, such arms transfers would seem to violate customary international law, including the International Law Commission's Draft Articles on Responsibility of States for Internationally Wrongful Acts, and International Humanitarian Law, including Common Article 1 to the four Geneva Conventions of 1949.

Obviously, both the U.S. and Israel have rejected all such charges. Instead, Washington has aggressively sanctioned the ICC and its prosecutorial authorities.

China's BRI stance in the Middle East

In the past decade or so, China has emerged as a credible and peaceful intermediary among the different stakeholders in the Middle East. In addition to investing significantly in countries in which the U.S. is known and notorious for its military aid and regime change operations, Beijing has achieved several diplomatic coups.

For decades, U.S. administrations fostered a divide between Saudi Arabia and Iran, the Sunni and Shia leaders of Middle East geopolitics. Yet, in March 2023, these two countries announced the resumption of bilateral relations, following a deal brokered by China. After decades of U.S.-led sanctions, Iran hoped to focus on economic development, whereas Riyadh was intent on realizing the Saudi Vision 2030 of a more diversified, less oil-reliant economy.

In July 2024, China played a vital role in fostering Palestinian national unity in what became known as the Beijing Declaration, signed by 14 different Palestinian factions, most prominently by Fatah and Hamas. In the subsequent weeks, Israel, supported by U.S. arms and military financing, intensified its assassination campaign against these Palestinian leaders – which also led to the recent attack in Doha.

In 2015, years of challenging talks resulted in a nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, JCPOA) between Iran, the U.S., and a set of world powers. Despite Iran's adherence to it, the Trump administration pulled the U.S. out of the deal in 2018. In the White House, regime change in Iran remains tempting, due to Tehran's huge regional economic and geopolitical importance.

China has exclusive rights to several Iranian oil and natural gas fields. As part of a 2016-2017 agreement, some Chinese military leaders argued Beijing would regard a foreign attack on these areas as an attack on its own sovereign territory. Two years later, Iran joined China's Belt and Road (BRI) initiative. In March 2021, the countries signed a 25-year and $400-billion strategic cooperation agreement. (Despite these deals, Israel attacked Iran in 2024 while the U.S. bombed Iran's nuclear facilities in June 2025.)

In August 2024, Beijing sent an even stronger signal about its commitment by establishing a Second Silk Road in the region. It ensued after major Chinese investments in Saudi Arabian stocks and the signing of MOUs worth $50 billion with six major Chinese financial institutions. And in July 2025, China and Egypt expanded their bilateral cooperation across various economic sectors.

The progressive rise of China's economic presence in the Middle East remains a matter of great concern in Washington.

The Fall of Israel (2024) and The Obliteration Doctrine (2025) by Dr Dan Steinbock

The militarization of U.S. foreign policy

Yet, the real problem is not Gaza, Iran or China, but the gross militarization of U.S. foreign policy. In September 2012, Karl W. Eikenberry, former U.S. ambassador to and commanding general of Afghanistan, warned that in the past 50 years American foreign policy has become “excessively reliant on military power.” Supported by its global military web, the U.S. has been in war, engaged in combat, or has otherwise employed its forces in foreign countries in all but 11 years of its existence.

Since the establishment of the first U.S. bases in Israel in the late 2010s, Israel's military actions have escalated dramatically, as evidenced by the Gaza catastrophe, the attendant attacks in neighboring Arab states, such as Lebanon and Syria, and even further in Iran and Yemen, and most recently in Qatar – a key U.S. ally in the region.

Since 1945, Washington has relied on a dark record of regime change and destabilization in the Middle East. The post-9/11 wars alone have cost over $8 trillion and the lives of more than 1 million people, whereas in Gaza, the U.S. is complicit to genocidal atrocities, due to its massive military aid and financing of hostilities. This disastrous performance is driving a rethink in the Trump White House where Pentagon officials, headed by Elbridge Colby, are reportedly proposing the department prioritize protecting the homeland and Western Hemisphere, a striking reversal from the military's focus on the “China threat” – and one that Washington's neoconservatives won't easily accept.

Yet, the simple truth is that the era of U.S. destabilization policies is over in the Middle East. The time for aggressive economic development, led by China and the Global South, has arrived.

Obliteration wars are no solution to 21st century challenges.