The outcome of the 2024 U.S. election campaign, currently in full swing, will have a direct impact on the development of China-U.S. relations. Of all the possible results, a Republican sweep of the White House, Senate and House of Representatives would constitute the biggest shock of all to bilateral ties.
Currently, Donald Trump holds a certain advantage in the race for president. His Republican Party has a slight edge in the House election and an apparent advantage in the Senate. If the Republicans win 52 or more Senate seats, its control of the Senate will continue, likely to 2028, which will make it easier for Trump to implement unfavorable foreign policies. With Trump in the White House, the U.S. Supreme Court — already dominated by conservative justices — would appear to be locked in for another decade or two.
Trump has already gained complete control of the Grand Old Party. If the GOP controls both the White House and Congress, it will be difficult for the Democratic Party to check and balance Trump's power. In this case, it will be convenient for the former president and his party to pursue their China policy, several aspects of which are worth special attention.
First, Trump will gain powerful tools to crack down on China's economy and trade. He could raise tariffs on Chinese imports in accordance with the existing Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the Trade Act of 1974 and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. While the legal basis for these acts is not solid and the procedures to implement them are cumbersome, if the GOP sweeps the election, Trump is likely to push Congress to formulate a reciprocal trade act to gain greater power to levy tariffs more easily.
Second, the GOP will probably revoke China's Most Favored Nation status, which has been one of the party's most often mentioned proposals against China in recent years. It's a nuclear option, which, once put in place, will deal a heavy blow to China-U.S. economic and trade ties. A repeal of China's MFN status will raise tariffs on Chinese imports to more than 30 percent, cause immense uncertainty for American investments in China and increase the risk of a depreciation of the Chinese yuan. It would be in the hands of Congress, but if the GOP were to control the White House and both houses of Congress at the same time, it's highly likely that this proposition will firm up.
Third, the GOP will strictly limit investments between China and the U.S. The GOP has articulated in its 2024 platform that it would bar Chinese citizens, governments and entities from purchasing American real estate and industries. Over the past few years, many Republican states have introduced legislation to cut off Chinese from land ownership. If the GOP comes into full power, it may formulate a federal law to make such a ban nationwide. Trump and China hawks are also seeking to stop U.S. companies from investing in China, worried that the latter will continue acquiring American funding and technology. They also want to keep business investment within the U.S. to create job opportunities.
Fourth, Trump will intensify America's economic competition with China. After the Republican Party assumes power, he will easily introduce laws to reduce taxes and relax regulations on businesses in hope of improving the American business environment and attract global capital to fthe U.S. In addition, Trump has always wanted a weak dollar to boost U.S. exports by devaluing the dollar. He may relabel China as a currency manipulator and force an RMB appreciation through threats of tariff hikes.
Fifth, the GOP will exacerbate the China-U.S. military rivalry. The Republican Party has been looking to increase the country's defense spending from the current 3.2 percent of GDP to 4 or even 5 percent, in order to match the lowest level of the Cold War era. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Speaker Mike Johnson, both Republicans, have decided to take this as a priority should the GOP gain a double majority in Congress.China hawks have long sought to push the limits of weapons development and deployment against China and Russia (among other countries), including increasing the number of warships and deploying intermediate-range and anti-ship missiles in the Indo-Pacific region, as well as the research and development of hypersonic missiles, upgrading and expanding America's nuclear arsenal and conducting new tests of anti-ballistic missiles and possibly even nuclear weapons.
Last but not least, the GOP will formulate more anti-China bills. Trump and Republican politicians have long presumed that COVID-19 was a deliberate act by China and that China should therefore take major responsibility. Hence, after the GOP gains full power, it will probably launch a reinvestigation into the origin of the virus, instigate American entities to sue China, seek compensation from China and impose sanctions on Chinese entities.Moreover, it's likely that the Trump administration would also implement a new China initiative to squelch scientific and cultural exchanges between the two countries, including ending exchange programs for young Americans to go to China, setting more obstacles for Chinese citizens to get visas into the U.S., conduct broader scrutiny of Chinese or Chinese-American scholars on the grounds of national security, further decouple universities and close more Confucius Institutes at U.S. universities.
In a nutshell, a sweeping Republican victory would deliver the hardest blow ever to China-U.S. relations given the party's tough attitude toward Beijing. We should expect this scenario and prepare ourselves for the worst.
