2022年底2023年初，越南領導人阮富仲和菲律賓新任總統小馬科斯先後訪華，形成一個促進中鄰關係，穩定南海局面的外交活動小高潮。越南和菲律賓是南海問題的關鍵國家。越南在2021年越共十三大後保持了領導人的連續性，近年來中越外交互動頻繁，總體穩定了兩國關係和南海問題。

而小馬科斯的前任杜特爾特在其任期內與中國一起維護了南海相對穩定的大局，世人更關注同時與中美都有特殊淵源的小馬科斯政府南海政策是否生變。

小馬科斯是2023年第一個到訪的外國元首，從雙方1月5日發佈的聯合聲明來看，穩定南海局勢仍是大局。聯合聲明第十三條稱，兩國元首就南海局勢深入坦誠交換意見，強調南海爭議不是雙邊關係的全部，同意妥善管控分歧。

雙方重申維護及促進地區和平穩定、南海航行和飛越自由的重要性，同意在《南海各方行為宣言》以及《聯合國憲章》和1982年《聯合國海洋法公約》基礎上，以和平方式處理爭議。

這意味着，中菲在2023年初即表達了繼續保持南海穩定局面的戰略意志和決心，有利於南海穩定與亞太和局。中菲和中越關係是維護南海大局穩定的關鍵，南海穩定又攸關亞太穩定。

自2010年美國奧巴馬政府實質性介入南海問題以來，各方圍繞南海問題的戰略博弈複雜化、激烈化，不時爆發摩擦和危機，這在2013年時任菲律賓總統阿基諾三世提出披着法律外衣的政治鬧劇——南海仲裁案達到高點。但是在杜特爾特總統2016-2022年任職期間，與中國一起扭轉了南海形勢，共同塑造了一個長達六年、寶貴的南海穩定局面。

尤其是在2020-2022年的三年疫情期間，儘管遭遇美國印太戰略拉緊同盟網絡，美日印澳四邊安全對話和美英澳同盟，乃至“印太海域態勢感知夥伴關係”的鼓噪擂動，南海並未掀起大風大浪。這為中國應對美國圍堵遏制，妥善應對其他周邊熱點問題，推進亞太和平發展奠定了基礎。由此來看，中菲和中越在南海問題上的相對穩態是穩定南海局面，避免中美在南海和東南亞戰略博弈升級的關鍵一環。

這裡就有一個看似“反常”的現象，即在中美戰略關係惡化、東南亞成為中美戰略博弈要地，南海問題成為美國攪局抓手的背景下，南海局勢反而呈現較長時間的“穩態”。

從戰略環境看，中國面對的印太環境整體趨於惡化。日韓跟定美國的戰略走向非常清晰，歐洲主要大國與美國形成戰略協同，印度趁火打劫在經濟和安全上對華戰略傾向激進，中亞在遭遇哈薩克斯坦政局變動和俄烏衝突後，一些國家進入對華戰略調整期。

而東南亞國家反而發出“東盟及其成員不選邊站，同時與中美搞好關係”的聲音。中國與東盟以第一大貿易夥伴的身份，超過20億人口的體量，形成一個中國-東盟和平發展區，並共同推進了世界上最大的自貿區RCEP的落地生效。

從南海問題本身看，雖然南海爭端各方都在做維權保障等方面的常規動作，但領導人保持戰略清醒、戰略克制和戰略定力，不衝突、不對抗，顯示了多年來對南海局勢進行戰略管理的經驗和技巧。在這方面，杜特爾特是小馬科斯的榜樣。

正如南海潮起潮落，南海局勢也是在緊張與穩定之間波動性變化。2023年才剛剛開始，今後南海局勢能否繼續維持穩態，不逆轉，不失航，仍需複雜而精妙複雜的戰略管理。

首先，這需要中菲、中越等做好雙邊的溝通協調，不管潮起潮落，堅定落實雙方聯合聲明，積極在南海創造合作點。

其次，儘快完成中國與東盟的“南海行為準則”（COC）談判，並將COC作為未來亞太和平文化、安全秩序的基石。

第三，爭取在中美緩和，並降低菲律賓等國外部戰略壓力的態勢下，在東盟架構之下推進中-美-東盟的包容性地區秩序構建。

總之，中菲穩則有利於南海穩，南海穩則有利於亞太和局。

In late 2022 and early 2023, Nguyen Phu Trong, general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. visited China, creating modest high points in diplomacy as they promoted neighborly relations and stability in the South China Sea. Vietnam and the Philippines are among the key states in the South China Sea dispute. The 13th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2021 signified continuity of leadership, and there have been frequent diplomatic interactions between China and Vietnam in recent years. Those have contributedd to stable relations an a de-escalation of tensions over disputed waters.

Since the former president, Rodrigo Duterte, managed maritime tensions throughout his tenure, the question raised now is whether there will be any change in South China Sea policy under the administration of Marcos, who has relationships with both China and the United States.

Marcos is the first foreign head of state to visit China in 2023. In the joint statement released by China and the Philippines on Jan. 5, upholding peace and stability in the South China Sea remains pivotal in the two sides' maritime policies. Article 13 of the joint statement said the two leaders had an in-depth and candid exchange of views on the situation in the South China Sea. They emphasized that maritime issues do not represent the sum-total of relations between the two states and agreed to appropriately manage differences through peaceful means.

Both sides reaffirmed the importance of maintaining and promoting peace and stability in the region and the freedom of navigation in and overflight above the South China Sea, and they reached consensus on the peaceful resolution of disputes on the basis of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), the United Nations Charter and the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

This means that China and the Philippines have expressed their strategic intent and determination to maintain stability in the South China Sea, which is conducive to peace in Asia-Pacific region more broadly. There is an intimate link between a peaceful South China Sea and a stable Asia-Pacific, where China's relationship with the Philippines and Vietnam is crucial. In 2010, the direct intervention of the U.S. administration with respect to the South China Sea issue escalated tensions and complicated matter, with occasional outbreaks of friction and crisis.

The dispute boiled over in 2013 when the Philippines, under the administration of former President Corazon Aquino, filed a South China Sea Arbitration suit, a political farce staged under a legal pretext. But changing tides in the 2016-22 period can be seen between China and the Philippines, as Duterte committed himself to shaping valuable stability.

During the three-year pandemic period of 2020-22, there was no significant change in the situation, despite the tightening alliance network under America's Indo-Pacific strategy, including the Indo-Pacific Quadrilateral Dialogue (Quad), the AUKUS alliance and the “Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime Domain Awareness.” This laid the foundation for China to deal with U.S. containment efforts, play a constructive role in regional hotspot issues and promote peaceful development in the Asia-Pacific. Given this, the relatively stable China-Philippines and China-Vietnam relationships regarding the maritime dispute have been vital in stabilizing the situation and avoiding an escalation of tensions between China and the U.S. in the South China Sea and Southeast Asia.

There is a seemingly “anomalous” phenomenon, however. Why did the situation in the South China Sea remain stable for a long period of time in the context of the deterioration of the strategic relationship between China and the U.S., the increasing significance of Southeast Asia in the China-U.S. strategic game and the eagerness of the U.S. to stir up trouble in the South China Sea?

From a strategic perspective, China faces a generally deteriorating Indo-Pacific environment. Both Japan and South Korea steadily follow the U.S. strategy lead. Strategic coordination has developed between the U.S. and the major European powers. India has taken advantage of China's dilemma and has shown an aggressive attitude toward China in its economic and security strategy. Some central Asian states are adjusting their strategy toward China in light of political changes in Kazakhstan and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

At the same time, ASEAN states interpret neutrality as not taking a side and keeping good relations with both China and the U.S. ASEAN states and China, as heavy trading partners, have formed a zone of peace and development with an aggregate population as big as 2 billion, and jointly promoted the RCEP, the world's largest FTA, to come into effect.

Regarding the South China Sea dispute, although all claimant states conduct routine operations in safeguarding rights, all leaders maintain strategic clarity, strategic restraint and strategic determination, which results in a “non-conflict, non-confrontation” situation in regional relations. This demonstrates the experience and tactics of all sides in the strategic management of the situation in the South China Sea. In this aspect, Duterte can be seen as model for Marcos.

Like waves in the South China Sea, the situation fluctuates. Disputes surface from time to time. But the journey of 2023 has just begun. Tactics are still required to diffuse disputes and maintain stability.

First, it's important to maintain good bilateral communication and coordination between China and the Philippines, and between China and Vietnam. Regardless of the situation, the joint statements should be implemented firmly with a steady dose of cooperation in the South China Sea.

Second, China and ASEAN should come to a speedy conclusion in negotiations on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC) and make it a cornerstone of peace and security in the Asia-Pacific.

Third, an inclusive China-U.S.-ASEAN regional order should be created under the regional architecture of ASEAN, with de-escalation of tensions between China and the U.S. and a reduction of foreign pressure on states like the Philippines.

All in all, there is an intimate linkage between a peaceful South China Sea and a stable Asia-Pacific region. Healthy China-Philippines relations are crucial in maintaining stability.