金磚機制大規模擴員後，“大金磚合作”理念不脛而走。按既往規律，“金磚熱”具有一過性特點，一般出現在金磚峰會前後。但今年以來，有關金磚的話題仍經常出現在各類新聞報道中。今年是“大金磚合作”元年，又恰逢深陷地緣政治衝突的俄羅斯任金磚輪值主席國，國際社會格外關注普京如何運用金磚平台實現外交突圍。此外，人們關注擴員後的金磚是否會染上與西方抗衡的政治色彩，世界會否再次形成兩個“平行對抗體系”。

縱觀俄羅斯政要及一些金磚成員國官員、學者的表態，圍繞“大金磚合作”開局之年主要有以下熱點：

一是“金磚支付體系”是否會取得實質性進展。在去年南非峰會的諸多議程中，建立“金磚國家支付體系”呼聲最高，且政學界共識最大。金磚國家均有意在“金磚國家支付工作組（BPTF）”指導下進一步就支付工具展開對話，創建安全和包容的支付體系。成員國領導人已責成各國財長和央行行長研究金磚國家本幣合作、支付工具和平台，且於喀山領導人會晤前提交報告。在金磚成員國中，俄羅斯深受西方支付體系之害，其主要銀行被踢出SWIFT支付體系，嚴重危及國家金融穩定和金融安全。接棒金磚後，俄羅斯自然最熱衷推進建立金磚支付體系。俄央行負責人表示，俄羅斯正與其他金磚成員國討論金融信息傳輸系統的互動，推動優化國際結算方式。俄外長拉夫羅夫稱，喀山峰會將討論成員國提交的支付體系方案。新年伊始，剛加入金磚的伊朗宣布已和俄羅斯接通銀行間通信和轉賬體系，這表明兩國已經拋棄西方把控的SWFIFT體系。一些學者將俄羅斯輪值金磚稱為變革“催化劑”，可以預見，創立新的支付體系將是今年金磚議程的優先事項，在俄羅斯推動下，建立金磚支付體系勢必將提檔加速。

二是“金磚俄羅斯年”是否會迎來新一波擴員潮。金磚擴員後，仍有34個國家通過書面請求表達加入金磚的願望。由此可見，儘管阿根廷米萊新政府扔掉到手的金磚“大禮包”，但絲毫未影響其他國家希望融入金磚的熱情。如此眾多國家同時希望加入金磚，這在國際多邊機制發展史上實屬罕見。至於箇中原因，印度外長蘇傑生在剛剛落幕的慕安會上的表態可謂一語中的，他稱，“30國想加入，說明金磚一定有好東西”。對於如何接納這些國家，普京透露，“我們將考慮這些國家以這樣或那樣的方式加入金磚，將積極研究'金磚夥伴國'的標準”。南非國際關係與合作部長潘多爾也表示，金磚外長正在制定“金磚夥伴國”模式，以接納尚未成為正式成員國的17個國家。由此可見，今年勢必會迎來新一波金磚擴員潮，一些未達到金磚正式成員國標準的國家將以“金磚夥伴國”的方式融入。其中，一些中等強國以及石油大國委內瑞拉能否直接成為金磚成員國將是焦點話題，金磚擴員潮在“金磚俄羅斯年”究竟會掀起怎樣波瀾值得關注。

三是美西方將如何攪局“金磚俄羅斯年”。伴隨金磚18年的發展進程，美西方對金磚的態度發生了“漠視--鄙視--重視”的變化，其手段不再是一味唱衰和抹黑金磚，而是綜合運用拉攏、分化和施壓等手段力防金磚做大。去年“金磚南非年”期間，美西方一方面施壓一些“全球南方”國家不要加入金磚，一方面炒作普京系國際刑事法庭通緝犯，阻擾南非邀請其參加金磚峰會。今年俄羅斯輪值金磚，烏克蘭危機延宕未果，美西方仍將把極限打壓俄羅斯視為“政治正確”。如此政治背景疊加美國大選，“金磚俄羅斯年”不會風平浪靜，美西方勢必會加力攪局，力圖阻遏俄羅斯以金磚為平台實現外交突圍，更要竭力阻礙金磚按俄羅斯意圖重組國際權力體系，進而建立不再由西方主導的國際新秩序。

金磚擴員產生的規模效應固然有助於推動全球治理架構趨向合理與均衡，但金磚機制同樣難以規避多邊機制的一些結構性矛盾和現實性難題。

其一，“大金磚合作”如何既能做大，又能做強。縱觀全球多邊機制，它們大多有“規模龐大，效率低下”的通病，一些多邊機制甚至因貪大求全而淪為“空談俱樂部”。金磚機制進入“大金磚合作”軌道，“成員多、共識少”“倡議多、落實少”等擔憂有所抬升，橫向擴大與縱向做深之間孰優孰劣的爭論也不絕於耳,一些成員國學者甚至認為不斷擴員的金磚“大船效應”不如“船小好調頭”。這些擔憂和爭論均緣於全球多邊機制的經驗與教訓。如何在做大金磚的同時做深和做實金磚，將是日後“大金磚合作”繞不開的難題。如何求同化異，化解在建立“金磚統一大市場”“金磚評級機構”“金磚秘書處”等問題上的爭論和分歧，需要成員國政學界的智慧和勇氣。

其二，金磚何時能夠吸納印尼、土耳其等中等強國以增“成色”。金磚之所以金光燦爛，在於其成員國具有足夠“成色”，新近加入的沙特、埃及等五國也均達到或接近“金標準”。金磚至今沒有吸納全球第一大穆斯林國家印尼，不是其成色不足，而是因為印尼至今未提交書面加入申請。箇中原因不言而喻。現任總統佐科由於忌憚選邊站隊壓力而更願意在東盟發揮獨特作用，當選總統普拉博沃更是直言不諱地稱，“印尼不想加入一個集團來對抗另一個集團，我們同它們都是朋友”。事實上，即使已經加入金磚的沙特也曾有類似顧慮和擔憂。同樣，作為北約成員國的土耳其也不可能沒有類似的擔憂。因此，金磚機制如何正確闡述其角色定位，使一些成色更足的國家無後顧之憂地融入，也是該機制發展面臨的現實難題。

概言之，作為一種與西方盟友體系截然不同的合作機制，金磚日益為人矚目，它既是代表“全球南方”在新一輪產業鏈和價值鏈重構中合作互補、聯動自強的多邊機制，也是百年變局形勢下國際秩序重構的主要驅動因素。“大金磚合作”必將推動全球治理架構從“中心-邊緣”向“平等-共治”模式轉變。

The enlargement of BRICS membership has empowered the concept of “greater BRICS cooperation,” and the political and academic domains of member countries have increasingly embraced this concept. Past experience suggests that “BRICS fever” tends to be transient, usually peaking around the time of the leaders' summit. This year bucks the trend, as news coverage of BRICS started early — first of all because this is the first year of greater BRICS cooperation, which coincides with a complex geopolitical conflict involving Russia, which holds the BRICS presidency. The international community is particularly concerned about how President Vladimir Putin uses BRICS as a platform for diplomatic breakthroughs.Second, news outlets are concerned about whether the expanded BRICS will be tainted with the political bias of counterbalance against the West, and whether the world will once again divide along the line of two parallel confrontational systems. 

Based on the statements of Russian dignitaries and officials and scholars of some BRICS member countries after taking the baton, some emerging developments are set to catch the limelight this year.

First is the question of whether substantive progress will be made on the BRICS payment system. Among the many items on the agenda of last year's summit in South Africa, the establishment of a BRICS payment system attracted the most interest and broad consensus in both political and academic circles. BRICS countries are keen to further explore payment instruments under the guidance of the BRICS Payment Task Force to create a secure and inclusive payment system. Leaders tasked finance ministers and central bank governors to study local BRICS currency cooperation, payment instruments and platforms and submit a report to the leaders' meeting in Kazan.Russia has long suffered from the Western payment system, with its major banks banned from SWIFT settlements, seriously jeopardizing Russia's financial stability and security. After taking over the presidency, Russia is naturally the most enthusiastic party promoting the establishment of a BRICS payment system. Russia's central bank governor said that the country is discussing the possibility, with other BRICS members, of engagement in financial information transmission systems and optimization of international settlement methods. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the Kazan summit will discuss payment system proposals.Early this year, Iran, a new BRICS member, announced that it has connected to Russia's interbank communication and transfer system, creating an alternative to the Western-controlled SWIFT system. Some scholars see Russia's presidency of BRICS as a catalyst for change. It is expected that the creation of a new payment system will be a priority for BRICS, and efforts toward this goal are bound to accelerate under Russia's stewardship.

Second is the question whether the BRICS Year under Russia will usher in a new wave of expansion. After the expansion of BRICS, 34 countries continue to express interest in joining. This shows that while the new government of Argentina led by Javier Millei threw the BRICS “gift package” out the window, it has not dampened others' enthusiasm for joining the group. The fact that so many countries want to join BRICS at the same time is rare in the history of international multilateral mechanisms. As for the reason, Indian External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar hit the nail on the head. He commented on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference: “Thirty countries want to join, and that means BRICS must have something good.”As to how such countries will be admitted, President Putin said that “BRICS will consider membership in one way or another, and will actively study the criteria for BRICS partner countries.” South Africa's Minister of International Relations and Cooperation Naledi Pandor said that the BRICS foreign ministers are working on a model for partner countries to include the 17 countries that are not yet full members.Thus, this year is bound to usher in a new wave of BRICS expansion, and some countries that do not meet the criteria for full BRICS membership will be involved in the form of BRICS partner countries. Whether or not some medium-sized powers and major oil powers such as Venezuela will join will be a focus. How much traction the BRICS expansion will gain will be a priority this year.

Third is the question of how the United States and the West will attempt to undermine the BRICS Russia Year. As the grouping has evolved over its 18 years of activity, the West's attitude has changed from indifference to condescension to “sit-up-and-look.” Its approach to BRICS is no longer singled-minded smearing; instead, it has coordinated the use of pulling rank, driving wedges and resorting to coercion as it sees fit to hinder the growth of the group.Last year, during South Africa's presidency, the West on one hand pressured some Global South countries not to join, while playing up the case brought up by the International Criminal Court against Putin in a bid to prevent South Africa from inviting him to participate in the BRICS Summit. This year, with Russia taking over the presidency and the Ukraine crisis still lingering, the West will continue to see it as a political must to suppress Russia.Against this political background and with the U.S. election coming up, the BRICS Russia Year will not be smooth sailing. More maneuvers can be expected to deter Russia from leveraging BRICS as a platform to pull off diplomatic breakthroughs and to forestall the evolution of BRICS according to Russia's intentions in a way that reshuffles the international power system. This may lead to a new international order that is no longer dominated by the West.

The scale effect of BRICS expansion will certainly help improve and balance the global governance structure, but it will also be difficult for the BRICS mechanism to circumvent some of the structural constraints and practical problems of the multilateral mechanism.

First, how can the BRICS be bigger and stronger? In the global multilateral group, most members share the common problem of “big scale, low efficiency.” Some multilateral mechanisms have even been reduced to “talk shop” because of their desire for grandeur. As the BRICS mechanism has entered the track of greater BRICS cooperation, concerns such as “more members, less consensus” and “more initiatives, less implementation” have risen — as well as the debate on the pros and cons of horizontal expansion and vertical deepening. Some scholars from member countries believe BRICS may suffer from the “big boat effect,” which means it will become increasingly unwieldy as it grows. These concerns and debates are rooted in hard experience and lessons learned.Ensuring that BRICS cooperation grows in both breadth and substance remains a challenge. Figuring out how to seek common ground and resolve differences in the establishment of the BRICS unified market, the BRICS rating agency and BRICS secretariat will test the wisdom and courage of the political and academic circles of the member countries.

Second, when will BRICS be able to take in Indonesia, Turkey and other medium-sized powers to increase its appeal? New members, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and five other countries meet (to varying degrees) the gold standard. But BRICS has not extended to Indonesia, the world's largest Muslim country, as Indonesia has not yet submitted a written application to join — and the reason is self-evident. Its incumbent President Joko Widodo does not want to be subject to the pressure of choosing sides and is more inclined to play a unique role in ASEAN. President-elect Prabowo Subianto is more outspoken in saying that Indonesia does not want to join a group that aims to counter another group, as Indonesia wants to be friends with them all. In fact, even Saudi Arabia, which has already joined BRICS, has had similar concerns. Likewise, Turkey, a member of NATO, will think the same way. Therefore, how BRICS positions itself is crucial, as integrating some countries that meet its membership standards is a real challenge.

In a nutshell, as a cooperation mechanism that is quite different from the Western alliance system, BRICS has become more prominent. It is a multilateral mechanism that represents the Global South in the new round of reconfigured industrial and value chains, and it is also the main driver in the reconstruction of the century-old international order. Greater BRICS cooperation will undoubtedly promote the transformation of the global governance structure from its center/periphery model to an equality/common governance model.