6月26日至29日，世界經濟論壇新領軍者年會（AMNC 23）在天津舉行，來自90個國家和地區的1500餘人與會。會議發出了全球經濟即將增長復蘇的強烈信號，讓人們確信世界不會進入“失去的十年”。

國際貨幣基金組織最新的《世界經濟展望》認為，世界經濟目前正經歷“艱難復蘇”，今年世界產出預計增長2.8%，2024年僅小幅加速至3.0%增速明顯低於疫情前。全球通脹仍處於高位，預計 2023 年為 7.0%，2024 年為 4.9%。

越南總理范明政認為，世界經濟當前面臨著六大阻力：

• 經濟衰退和高通脹

• 新冠疫情造成的逆境

• 地緣政治競爭

• 影響全球糧食和能源安全的烏克蘭戰爭

• 發展中國家的外部支付危機

• 氣候變化

AMNC 23認為，全球經濟復蘇的根本途徑包括振興私營部門、促進貿易和創造新的資本流動。然而，所有這些都依賴於新的增長引擎，即能夠推動並重塑世界的新興技術。

在 AMNC 23 上，世界經濟論壇發佈了題為《2023 年十大新興技術》的報告。其中包括柔性電池、人工智能、可持續航空燃料、工程噬菌體、改善心理健康的元宇宙、可穿戴植物傳感器、空間組學、柔性神經電子學、可持續計算，和人工智能輔助醫療。

這十項新興技術中，兩項與前沿人工智能和數字技術相關，它們將極大提高生產力並重塑全球供應鏈；五項與醫療保健領域的巨大進步有關；兩項與綠色發展、應對氣候變化有關；一項涉及農業生產中的數字技術，可顯著提高糧食產量。

第一項技術是柔性電池，它將帶來智能電子產品、納米技術、能源存儲和智能紡織品領域的進步。預計2022-2027年期間，全球柔性電池市場複合年增長率為22.79%，即市場規模凈增長2400億美元。

第二項技術是生成式人工智能，它將擴充人類行為的可能性，從而顯著提高生產力。

第三是可持續航空燃料，它能夠將航空燃料從化石能源轉變為生物質。航空燃油消耗佔世界二氧化碳排放量的 2% 至 3%，所以這一轉型將為應對氣候變化做出突出貢獻。

第四和第五是工程噬菌體和改善心理健康的元宇宙。前者通過設計病毒，增強人類、動物和植物的健康，並具有治療微生物相關疾病的潛力；後者共享虛擬空間，改善心理健康。

第六是可穿戴植物傳感器，這項技術將徹底改變農業數據收集，明顯提高農業產量，從而滿足對世界糧食供應的迫切需求。聯合國糧農組織估計，世界糧食產量必須增加70%，才能滿足世界人口不斷增長帶來的需求。

第七是空間組學，它提供生物過程的分子水平圖譜，以解開生命的奧秘。該領域的全球市場規模將從2021年的2326億美元，增至2030年的5872億美元。

第八是柔性神經電子學，它提供更好的工程電路，與人類神經系統連接。

第九是可持續計算，它涉及凈零能耗數據中心，包括谷歌搜索、元宇宙、人工智能等眾多方面。數據中心為全球人工智能社會提供動力，但同時消耗的電力僅佔世界電力的 1%。它既是強大的大數據發展動力，也是碳中和領域的成功案例。

第十也是最後一項，是人工智能輔助醫療。這對於醫療基礎設施不足的發展中國家尤其重要。

這令人着迷的十項新技術，並不都是當代世界具有里程碑意義的新技術。它們是從95項新技術中精心挑選出來的，有望成為推動世界經濟的強大引擎，避免其陷入“失去的十年”。自然地，AMNC 23 與會者存在着一種在這些技術方面進行國際合作的氣氛。

在此背景下，華盛頓目前基於價值的彈性供應鏈政策（將中國排除在外）、對高端芯片和其他技術的全面禁令和限制，以及即將收緊對中國的高科技投資，都不利於世界技術的發展，且並沒有太多效果。

首先，新興技術能夠壓倒美國目前在這些領域的優勢。例如，與柔性電池和生成式人工智能相比，ChatGPT 才剛剛開始。新技術將重塑全球供應鏈，覆蓋廣大國家和地區，超越“基於價值”的狹隘定義。

其次，中國也是這些技術全面發展的一部分。大批全球科技企業和機構投資者來到天津，在AMNC 23上與中國政府和企業代表進行座談。波士頓諮詢公司近日發佈的報告顯示，在全球創新企業50強中，美國科技巨頭佔據前五個席位（蘋果、特斯拉、亞馬遜、Alphabet 和微軟），但中國企業佔據八個席位，其中華為和比亞迪分別位列第八和第九名。美國排名前五的企業都在與中國合作，如果想在世界舞台上取得成功，美國科技巨頭離不開中國。

第三，這十項新技術能夠解決世界面臨的共同挑戰，並有望提供解決方案。這些問題包括氣候變化、世界糧食供應、全民醫保、能源轉型，以及數字經濟和人工智能的進步。中國和美國在所有這些領域都承擔著全球責任，因此應該而且能夠合作，而不是脫鉤。

美國財長耶倫於7月6日至9日訪華，她排除了與中國脫鉤的可能性。最新在天津舉行的世界經濟論壇AMNC 23表示，中美兩國應該重新審視兩國的技術和商業關係，而且，應該加強在這十項新技術等方面的合作，而不是脫鉤。

在諸多領域、具體技術和服務，以及可能的國家安全領域，中美應重啟機制性對話和磋商。無疑，這些領域的雙邊合作將支持兩國發展，幫助世界避免陷入“失去的十年”。

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting on New Champions (AMNC 23), held in Tianjin from June 26 to 29, had more than 1,500 participants from 90 countries and regions. It sent out strong signals for a global growth revival, providing reassurance that the world is not moving into a lost decade.

The world economy is currently experiencing a “rocky recovery,” as the IMF's latest World Economic Outlook put it, with world output expected to grow 2.8 percent this year and only accelerate slightly to 3.0 percent in 2024. The growth rates are apparently lower than the pre-pandemic period. Global inflation remains at a high level, with 7.0 percent expected for 2023 and 4.9 percent for 2024.

Pham Minh Chinh, the prime minister of Vietnam, summarized the world economy as moving forward against six headwinds:

• Recession and high inflation

• Pandemic-caused adversity

• Geopolitical competition

• The war in Ukraine which affects global food and energy security

• External payment crises in developing countries

• Climate change.

The fundamental path to a revival of global growth, as AMNC 23 found, includes revitalizing the private sector, fostering trade and creating new capital flows. However, all those depend on new growth engine: new and emerging technologies that pull ahead and reshape the world.

The World Economic Forum released a report — 10 Emerging Technologies of the World 2023 — at AMNC 23. These include flexible batteries, artificial intelligence, sustainable aviation fuel, designer phages, a metaverse for mental health, wearable plant sensors, spatial omics, flexible neural electronics, sustainable computing and AI-facilitated healthcare.

Of the 10 emerging technologies, two are related to frontier AI and digital technology, which will greatly advance productivity and reshape the global supply chain. Five are related to drastic advancement in healthcare; two are related to green development and fighting climate change; and one relates to the digital technology in agricultural production to enhance food output significantly.

The first technology is the flexible battery. It will lead to smart electronics, advances in nanotechnology, energy storage and smart textiles. It is estimated that the world flexible battery market will have a composite annual growth rate of 22.79 percent during the 2022-2027 period, or a net market size increase of $240 billion.

The second technology is generative AI, which expands the boundaries of human behavior, thus increasing productivity significantly.

Third is sustainable aviation fuel, which transforms aviation fuel from fossil sources to biomass. Since aviation fuel consumption accounts for 2 to 3 percent of world CO2 emissions, the transformation will contribute markedly to fighting climate change.

Fourth and fifth are designer phages and a metaverse for mental health. The former engineers viruses to augment human, animal and plant health, and has the potential to treat microbiome-associated diseases. The latter shares virtual spaces to improve mental health.

Sixth is wearable plant sensors. This technology will revolutionize agriculture data collection to enhance farm yields considerably. It thus responds to the acute needs of the world food supply. UNFAO has estimated that the world food output has to increase by 70 percent to meet the need of growing world population.

Seventh is spatial omics, which offers molecular-level mapping of biological processes to unlock life's mysteries. The world market size will increase from $232.6 billion in 2021 to $587.2 billion by 2030.

Eighth is flexible neural electronics. It offers better engineered circuits to interface with the human nervous system.

Ninth is sustainable computing, which involves net-zero-energy data centers, including Google searches, metaverse, AI and numerous other aspects. The data centers power AI society worldwide, but at the same time consume only 1 percent of world power supply. It is both a leading big data powerhouse and a carbon-neutral success.

Tenth, and last, is AI-facilitated healthcare. It is especially significant for developing countries with inadequate healthcare infrastructure.

The fascinating 10 new technologies are not all the landmark new technologies in the contemporary world. They were carefully selected from a list of 95 new technologies and will serve as strong engines driving the world economy forward, avoiding “a lost decade.” Naturally, there was a mood of world collaboration in those technologies among participants at AMNC 23.

In this context, Washington's current policy of resilient supply chains based on value — excluding China — and the sweeping bans and restrictions of high-end chips and other technologies, as well as the upcoming tightening of high-tech investment in China, work against the world technology trend and are less effective.

First, the emerging technologies can prevail over the current U.S. advantages in those areas. Compared with flexible batteries and generative AI, for example, ChatGPT is just beginning. The new technologies will reshape global supply chains, covering vast numbers of countries and regions and exceeding the narrow definition of “value-based” ones.

Second, China is also a part in the sweeping growth of these technologies. Large numbers of world technology companies and institutional investors came to Tianjin and had discussions with representatives of the Chinese government and businesses at AMNC 23. According to a recent report by Boston Consultants, of the world's top 50 innovative companies, American tech giants took the top five spots (Apple, Tesla, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft). But Chinese companies took eight seats, with Huawei and BYD at eighth and ninth respectively. And all the top five U.S. companies cooperate with China. The U.S. tech giants need China if they want to be successful in the world arena.

Third, the 10 new technologies address common challenges facing the world and promise solutions. They include climate change, the world food supply, healthcare for all, energy transition and advances in the digital economy and artificial intelligence. China and America share global responsibility in all these areas and thus should — and can — collaborate, instead of decoupling.

Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury secretary, will visit China from July 6 to 9. She has excluded decoupling from China. The latest World Economic Forum AMNC 23 in Tianjin revealed that China and the U.S. should re-examine their technology and business relations and, rather than decoupling, should enhance collaboration in the 10 new technologies and more.

China and the U.S. should restart institutional dialogues and consultations in various areas, in specific technologies and services and possibly in the national security realm. Bilateral cooperation in these areas will undoubtedly support the growth of both countries and help the world avoid a lost decade.