2013年秋，中國國家主席習近平首次向世界宣布“一帶一路”倡議。該倡議雄心勃勃，影響致遠，雖不易實現，但具有極大的潛在影響力。它將改善全球半數以上人口居住的、作為世界重要組成部分的亞洲、歐洲和東北非洲的社會與經濟結構。它還有可能對該地區乃至整個世界的政治穩定與和平產生重大影響。“一帶一路”倡議提出要改善亞洲、歐洲和東北非洲國家之間的交通基礎設施，加強和擴大它們之間的經濟、社會、文化和政治聯繫。這一雙贏倡議不僅惠及生活在這一地區的世界一半以上人口，還將為全世界的政治穩定與和平做出貢獻。

三年多來有許多關於“一帶一路”倡議的文章，例如前中國國務院僑辦副主任何亞非2015年10月13日在“中美聚焦”（China-US Focus）發表的《通過“一帶一路”與世界相連》。文章中，他論述了全球經濟發展與國際地緣政治衝突，並展示了以下“一帶一路”地圖，上面的實線是陸路交通基礎設施，虛線是海路運輸基礎設施。

本文中，我們會做一個簡單類比，來理解“一帶一路”的意義與重要性。類比適用於“一帶一路”倡議的重要組成總部分，雖然不是全部。為此我們用香港和北京地鐵的發展及各自對社會的影響，來比較“一帶一路”。

A．香港地鐵：港鐵（MTR）於1979年7月啟用，40年來持續擴建。它提供着全面快捷的運輸，幾乎連接了香港所有地區。無論在哪裡，人們都可以在幾十分鐘之內從一個地方到達另一個地方，雖然有些地方還需要小巴接駁。地鐵一大早開始運行，一直到深夜。總體上地鐵車次頻繁、快捷、乾淨、安全而且票價親民。這讓人們在好幾個方面有了更大靈活性和機動性，這其中包括僱員的機動性、僱主的靈活性、消費者的靈活性和社會各界與學界的機動/靈活性。

這意味着從工作、家庭、商業、教育、娛樂、社會等角度看，香港基本上是完全連通的，它不再是一個一個小區域的集合體，人們的互動圈子不再囿於一小塊地方。這對增加和改善經濟驅動力，增加和改善社會交往、教育機會、文化娛樂活動等產生了巨大的積極影響。有地鐵之前和有地鐵之後，這座城市的活力迥異。當然，在這方面香港並不是首例。很長一段時間內，巴黎地鐵一直是其他國家效仿的榜樣。

B．北京地鐵：北京很多年前就有地鐵了，但直到世紀之交的時候，它的地鐵線都沒有更全面地擴建。上世紀70年代，北京地鐵規模很小（只有幾條線），而且不是大多數生活在北京的人的主要交通工具。即使上世紀90年代，地鐵已經擴建，也依然說不上完整。下面這張地圖展示了1997年時候的北京地鐵。

北京地鐵線（1997年）

然而從那以後，北京地鐵開始擴建（特別是以2008年北京奧運會為契機），並不斷擴大，如今已經被認為是相當完整的地鐵系統。下圖是2017年北京的地鐵線路（此圖還包括少量規划到2021年建成的線路）。

當前的北京地鐵線路

只看線路和站，就知道過去20年它發展得多麼了不起。雖然還是不如巴黎完整，但它已足夠完整到可以讓北京獲得香港案例中提到那些好處了（如增加經濟收益、社會交往、教育機會和文化娛樂活動等）。當然北京從地理上說是比香港大得多的城市。

“一帶一路”倡議：“一帶一路”倡議旨在改善交通基礎設施，連接亞洲、歐洲和東北非洲各國。它的一部分是陸路交通基礎設施（所謂的“一帶”），主要是利用高速列車；另一部分是海路運輸基礎設施（所謂的“海上絲綢之路”），主要是利用遠洋輪船。“一帶一路”無疑是一個遠比修建城市地鐵更有抱負但同時也困難重重的計劃，因為它跨越國境，涉及諸多不同種族、文化、宗教、語言和經濟政治制度。但正是因為後者，“一帶一路”在地區經濟繁榮、政治穩定與和平方面的潛在好處更廣。對地區乃至全球政治穩定與和平的潛在影響，遠非大城市的地鐵線可比。

“一帶一路”的跨境交通基礎設施還將促進不同國家內部的經濟活動，因為各國要擴建/改善本國交通基礎設施，使其與“一帶一路”主要中心站點連接。例如，“一帶”建成的高鐵可以讓俄羅斯將其西伯利亞鐵路旁的北方城市與“一帶”某主要站點連接。不止一個西伯利亞鐵路城市這樣做，就可以大大提高生產力，使廣袤而人口稀少的西伯利亞得到更好的利用。同樣，靠近“海上絲綢之路”主要港口的城鎮也可以將它們自己的交通基礎設施與這些港口相連。

上面說過，由於“一帶一路”跨越國境，且涉及不同種族、文化、宗教、語言和經濟政治制度國家的人民，要完成它殊非易事。但正由於各國能從“一帶一路”倡議當中獲得巨大經濟與社會效益，因此它也提供了巨大動力，讓不同國家攜手克服困難。各國人民必須共同努力，必須更好地了解不同的文化和語言。他們必須把人視為人類，而不是中國人、俄羅斯人、印度人、土耳其人、沙特人、法國人、德國人……或者是佛教徒、基督教徒、印度教徒、穆斯林……他們還必須解決關稅、貨幣和標準（比如軌道規格的不同）等問題。為了共享“一帶一路”帶來的繁榮，各參與方要彼此協作，和平共處。“一帶一路”倡議的最大好處，也許就是加強不同背景人民之間的理解與包容，讓人們認識到，要想實現雙贏，彼此必須和平地合作。

The “One Belt One Road” (OBOR) initiative, first announced to the world in the fall of 2013 by President Xi Jinping of China, is an extremely ambitious and far-reaching initiative that is not easy to achieve, but has significant potential impacts, improving the social and economic structure of a major part of the world around Asia, Europe, and northeastern parts of Africa, where more than half of the world's population lives. It could also have significant implications for political stability and peace in that region, as well as for the whole world. The OBOR initiative proposes to improve the transportation infrastructure among countries in Asia, Europe, and northeast Africa so that it can give rise to closer and larger economic, social, cultural, and political ties. This is a win-win initiative that should benefit not only more than 50% of the world's population living in that region, but it should also contribute to political stability and peace in the whole world.

Many articles have been written about the OBOR initiative in the last 3+ years. For example, in the October 13, 2015 issue of China-US Focus, He Yafei, former Vice Minister of China's State Council Office of Overseas Chinese Affairs, wrote an article “Connecting the World Through 'Belt & Road',” in which he discussed global economic development and international geopolitical conflicts. He also showed the following map of OBOR, where the solid line is the land transportation infrastructure and the dotted line is the sea transportation infrastructure.

In this essay, we provide a simple analogy to understand the meaning and significance of OBOR. The analogy is applicable to an important part of the OBOR initiative, although not the whole.To do so OBOR is compared to the Hong Kong and Beijing subway system development and their impacts on their respective communities.

A. Hong Kong's Subway System:The Hong Kong (HK) subway system MTR (Mass Transit Railway) was put into operation in 1979, and has continued to expand for almost four decades. It provides comprehensive, rapid transportation, connecting almost all parts of HK. Between most locations, it allows one to go from one place to another in a matter of tens of minutes, although reaching certain locations may still require connections by small buses. The subway trains start early in the morning and operate until very late at night. Generally, the trains are frequent, fast, clean, safe, and affordable. This allows greater flexibility and mobility in several manners including, employee mobility and employer flexibility, consumer flexibility, and social and academic mobility/flexibility.

What this means is that from the perspective of work, home, business, education, recreation, social, etc., HK is basically completely interconnected. It is no longer a collection of many small localities, where one's major circle of interactions is within a small locality. This has tremendous positive consequences in increasing and improving economic drivers, social interactions, education opportunities, recreation and cultural activities, etc. The difference in the vitality of the city from before and after the subway was introduced has been drastic. Of course, HK is not the first example of such effects. For a long time, Paris's Metro system has been an example for other countries to follow.

B. Beijing's Subway System:Beijing has had a subway for many years. However, its subway system really did not expand and become more comprehensive until the turn of the 21st century. In the 1970s, the Beijing subway system was very small (only a few lines) and was not a significant transportation system used by the majority of people living in Beijing. Even in the 1990s when the subway system had already expanded a great deal, it was still not very comprehensive. The map below shows the Beijing subway system in 1997.

Beijing Subway System – 1997

However, since then, the Beijing subway system expanded (especially triggered by the 2008 Beijing Olympics) and has continued to expand, now being considered a comprehensive subway system. The map below shows the current Beijing subway system in 2017 (although this map also includes some minor planned expansions to 2021).

Current Beijing Subway System

Just from looking at the number of lines and stations, you can see that it has expanded greatly during the last 20 years. However, it is still not nearly as comprehensive as Paris, but it is comprehensive enough so that the benefits discussed in the HK case (such as improving economic benefits, social interactions, education opportunities, recreation and cultural activities, etc.) can also be realized in Beijing, in spite of the fact that Beijing is a much larger city geographically than HK.

The OBOR Initiative:The OBOR initiative is set to improve transportation infrastructure, connecting various countries in Asia, Europe, and also Northeast Africa. One component is the land transportation infrastructure (known as the One Belt), mostly via high speed trains. The other is the sea transportation infrastructure (known as the Maritime Silk Road), via trans-ocean ships. OBOR of course is a much more ambitious and difficult objective than building a \ metropolitan subway system, because it crosses national boundaries, and involves many different races, cultures, religions, languages, economic, and political systems. However, precisely because of the latter, the potential benefits of OBOR, in terms of regional economic prosperity, political stability, and peace are even more prevalent. The potential impact on regional, and perhaps world, political stability and peace goes far beyond the comparison to a metropolitan subway system.

The OBOR transportation infrastructure that crosses national boundaries should also lead to increased economic activities in various countries when they expand/improve their internal transportation infrastructure to connect to some of the key centers of OBOR. For example, the One Belt high speed train could potentially allow Russia to connect several of its cities North-on the Trans-Siberian Railway to a major stop of one of the One Belt train stations. This could be repeated in more than one location on the Trans-Siberian Railway, and thus significantly improve the productivity and use of the vast and sparsely populated Siberia. Similarly, towns/cities near a major port of the Maritime Silk Road can connect their internal transportation infrastructure to one of these ports.

As mentioned before, because OBOR crosses national boundaries and involves people from different countries of different races, cultures, religions, languages, economic and political systems, it will not be easy to make it work. However, precisely because different countries can reap great economic and social benefits from the OBOR initiative, it provides many great incentives for the different countries to collaborate to overcome obstacles. People from different countries will have to work together, they will need to have a better understanding of the different cultures and languages. They will have to consider people as human beings, and not Chinese, Russian, Indian, Turks, Saudi Arabian, French, German, etc., or Buddhist, Christian, Hindu, Muslim, etc. They will also have to resolve issues such as tariffs, currencies, and standards (e.g., different railroad gauges). To share the prosperity offered by OBOR, the participants will need to work collaboratively and peacefully with each other. Perhaps the greatest benefit of the OBOR initiative is the increased understanding and tolerance of people of different backgrounds and the recognition of the need to collaborate peacefully with each other, in order to achieve the win-win objective.