G20杭州峰會一個獨有而顯著的特點，就是契合聯合國2030年可持續發展議程，符合全球宏觀政策框架下的發展優先秩序。在G20成員不斷致力於全球經濟增長與治理的同時，杭州峰會將為南北合作與南南合作確立更廣泛的框架。

G20杭州峰會一個獨有而顯著的特點，就是契合聯合國2030年可持續發展議程。

 G20的不足

兩年前筆者在G20布里斯班峰會時寫過一篇文章，呼籲對眾多貧窮國家給予關注。文章提到“G20一定程度上忽視了世界上的窮國。雖然G20成員擁有全球90%的GDP，其他以小國窮國為主的170多個國家僅擁有餘下10%的GDP，但後者代表世界的大多數（人口）和最重要、最難解決的全球性經濟社會問題，如貧困、糧食安全、氣候變化和基礎設施建設。G20邀請一小部分國家參與每年的峰會，但為數極少。在這種情況下，G20想解決千年發展目標、氣候變化和糧食安全等問題是不會有什麼成效的”。

G20一度是大國發揮關鍵作用的危機應對機制。但隨着它演變成為一個長期的全球治理平台，小國和欠發達國家已不可或缺。聯合國有197個成員國，G20隻有19國+歐盟（其他24個國家）。僅僅強調G20在全球GDP中所佔的份額是不行的。英國佔全球GDP不足4%，但英國退歐將對世界經濟格局產生深遠影響。希臘占歐盟GDP不足2%，而希臘債務危機卻動搖了歐元區的根基。

世界石油和大宗商品價格暴跌，使不少新興國家和發展中國家難上加難。而一些小島國尤其受到全球氣候變暖的威脅。內陸國家也經受着貿易萎縮和貿易保護的沉重打擊。所有欠發達國家都面臨基礎設施不足和供水、教育、醫療服務的短缺。這些國家的經濟沒有顯著增長，世界經濟的強勁、可持續和平衡增長就無從談起。

杭州峰會面臨的挑戰

由於經濟持續疲軟脆弱，IMF每隔三個月就調低對全球經濟增長率的預測。英國退歐公投後，IMF於7月初發佈最新《世界經濟展望》報告。報告顯示，撒哈拉以南非洲國家形勢急劇惡化，而這一地區曾是 世界上增長最快的地區之一。2016、2017年，該地區GDP增長率預計為1.6%和3.3%，比三個月前的預測分別減少1.4和0.7個百分點。2016年低收入國家GDP增長率預計為3.8%（2015年為4.5%），只有到2017年才會升至5.1%。要知道，聯合國2030年發展議程是設想年均增長7%來達到它的2030年目標。所以杭州峰會面臨的挑戰就是：G20國家、發展中國家和國際組織領導人能否作出強有力的有效承諾，推動上述國家實現經濟增長。

原油和大宗商品價格暴跌是關鍵。據IMF統計，2014年和2015年世界原油價格分別下跌7.5%和47.2%，2016年降幅估計達15.5%，到2017年才有可能上漲16.4%。非燃料類大宗商品的平均價格2014年下降4.0%，2015年下降17.5%，2016年預計下降3.8%，2017年預計上升0.6%。

筆者一年前還提出，作為全球最大石油、頁岩氣生產國和G20成員國，美國、俄羅斯和沙特阿拉伯應在G20峰會期間就穩定世界石油市場進行磋商。但G20什麼也沒做，只是任由市場自我運轉。

耐人尋味的是，2015年年底以來，越來越多資本流入大宗商品市場。巴克萊銀行8月8日公布的數據顯示，2016年初至今，流入全球大宗商品市場的資本增加了500億美元，到2016年年中已達2350億美元。是2009年全球大宗商品市場步入三年繁榮期以來增加最多的。然而，多數資本流向了有上升預期的石油和黃金市場。這也表明全球大宗商品市場的波動起伏不僅取決於供求因素，也取決於資本投資與投機，因為全球大宗產品期貨主要是金融工具，而不是實際的需求。杭州峰會再次面臨的挑戰就是：G20領導人能否加強對全球大宗商品市場的金融監管？

兩個戰略

為確保發展議程有一個良好開端，杭州峰會至少要關注兩個戰略。

首先，是全球大宗商品市場穩定戰略。G20領導人應將這一戰略納入更大的全球金融監管和全球金融體系框架。世界大宗商品價格主要取決於供求，但實際上也隨資本的流動而波動。大宗商品期貨交易包括獲利性投機，而控制過度投機的一個有效手段，就是落實保證金要求，嚴格交易規則。2007年，全球石油期貨交易投機猖獗，促使油價一度飆升到每桶147美元。後來，保證金要求發生了變化，油價直線下跌。G20領導人應就更廣泛的戰略達成一致，以穩定全球大宗商品市場。這一戰略應該包括更多的期貨交易監管，以及建立類似全球糧食緩衝儲備那樣的緩衝儲備機制。G20國家應該為這一機制提供金融支持和專業支持，同時發展中國家和最不發達國家應加入這一有良好治理和國際合作的機制。

第二，是非洲國家的工業化戰略。非洲是世界上增長最快的地區之一，它的未來就在於實現大規模工業化。如果成功，預計非洲將在一代人時間內建立起全面的工業體系，在兩代人時間內成為世界最大工業化大陸之一。G20、非盟、聯合國工發組織、世界銀行及其他國際組織的領導人應啟動一個有全球合作的非洲工業化集體戰略。作為開始，杭州峰會期間應該推出一個戰略研究與全面行動計劃。這樣杭州峰會將為G20歷史作出里程碑式貢獻，為全球經濟的強勁、可持續和平衡增長開啟新的路徑。

A distinct and significant feature of the G20 Hangzhou Summit is the convergence with UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the priority for development in the global macro policy framework. While continuing great efforts in global growth and governance by G20 member countries, the Hangzhou Summit will launch a broader framework for North-South and South-South cooperation.

A distinct and significant feature of the G20 Hangzhou Summit is the convergence with UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the priority for development in the global macro policy framework.

Insufficiency of G20

I contributed an article to G20 Brisbane Summit two years ago. In the article, I appealed for due attention to vast number of poor countries. The article said that “the G20 has partially neglected the poor countries of the world. Although 90% of world GDP is covered by G20 members, the remaining 10% is covered by over 170 countries, mostly small and poor. They represent the vast majority of the world (population) and the most critical and difficult world economic and social issues, such as poverty, food security, climate change, and infrastructures. The G20 does invite small countries to each year's summit. But they are only a few. Hence, it will be less effective if the G20 wants to address MDG, climate change and food security issues.”

G20 used to be a crisis-responsive mechanism in which big countries played a key role. However, with G20 evolving into a long-term global governance platform, small and less developed countries are also indispensable. The UN has 197 member states while G20 covers only 19+ EU (24 more countries). It will be inappropriate to simply emphasize the share of G20 in world GDP. Brexit has had a strong and persistent impact on world economic landscape although UK accounts for less than 4% of total world GDP. Greece, with less than 2% of EU GDP, also shook the foundation of the Euro area by its debt crisis.

The sharp fall in world oil and commodities prices has added grave difficulties in large numbers of new emerging and developing countries. Global warming threatens, among others, the small island countries in particular. The land-locked countries have also been hit hard by the poor trade performances and trade protection. All the less developed countries suffer from poor infrastructure, inadequate water supply, education and medical services. The strong, sustainable and balanced growth in world economy will be out of question if there is no significant development in those countries.

Challenges for Hangzhou Summit

The IMF has been revising downward the world GDP growth rate once every three months as weakness and vulnerability persist. The most recent edition of its WEO, released in early July after Brexit, showed a sharp deterioration in sub-Sahara countries which used to be one of the fastest growing region in the world. GDP growth rate for this region was estimated at a merger 1.6% for 2016, 1.4 % down from the estimate 3 months ago; and 3.3% for 2017, 0.7 % down. The low-income countries will see 3.8% GDP growth in 2016 (4.5% growth in 2015), only to pick up to 5.1% in 2017. Remember, the UN2030 Agenda envisages an annual growth rate of 7% to attain its 2030 goal. Then the challenge to the Hangzhou Summit is: Can the leaders of the G20, developing countries and international organizations come to a strong and effective commitment to lift the growth rate in those countries?

A key issue is the sharp fall in oil and commodities prices. According to IMF, the world oil price fell by 7.5% in 2014 and 47.2% in 2015, and is expected to fall by 15.5% in 2016, only to rise by 16.4% in 2017. The non-fuel commodities average price level was 4.0% down in 2014 and 17.5% down in 2015, and is projected to fall by 3.8% in 2016 and by 0.6% in 2017.

I also suggested a year ago that the US, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the world largest oil and shale gas producers, also G20 members, sit together at the G20 sideline meetings for stabilizing world oil market. However, the G20 did nothing, only waiting for its own cycle.

Interestingly, there have been an increased capital flows into the commodities markets since the end of 2015. Data by Barclays released on Aug 8 shows that capital inflows into world commodities markets increased by $50 billion since the start of 2016, reaching $235.0 billion by mid-2016, compared to $161.0 billion at the end of 2015. The increase was the largest since 2009, when a three-year boom started in world commodities. Nonetheless, most of the capital has flowed into the oil and gold markets in anticipation of further rises. This also shows that the fluctuations or volatilities of world commodities markets are not only decided by supply-demand factors, but also by capital investment and speculation, as world commodities futures are mostly financial tools, instead of actual needs. Again, the challenge to the Hangzhou Summit is: Can G20 leaders enhance financial governance in world commodities markets?

Two strategies

In order to secure a good start for the development agenda, two strategies, among others, need to be focused on at the Hangzhou Summit.

First, the strategy of world commodities market stabilization. G20 leaders should incorporate this strategy into the broader framework of global financial governance and global finance architecture. World commodities prices, while depending on the supply-demand equilibrium at large, are actually fluctuating with capital moves. Commodities futures trading includes speculation for profit taking. An effective tool to check excessive speculation is managing the margin requirements and relevant strict trading rules. In 2007, speculation was rampant in the world oil futures trading and once sent the price to $147 per barrel. Later, when the margin requirements changed, the oil price nosedived. G20 leaders should agree on the broader strategy for world commodities market stability. The strategy should include both more futures trading governance and additional buffer stocking mechanism, similar to the world food buffer stocks. G20 countries should offer financial assistance and expertise to the mechanism and the developing countries and LDCs should join in the mechanism with good governance and international cooperation.

Second, the strategy of African industrialization. Africa has been one of the fastest-growing regions in the world, and its future lies in the massive industrialization. It is estimated that, if successful, Africa will build up a comprehensive industrial system in a generation and become one of the world's largest industrialized continents in two generations. Leaders of the G20, AU, UNIDO, WB and other international organizations should launch a collective strategy on African Industrialization with global cooperation. To start with, a strategic study and a comprehensive action plan should be launched at the Hangzhou Summit. By so doing, the Hangzhou Summit will make a landmark contribution to G20 history and start a new pathway to a strong, sustainable and balanced growth in the whole world.