全世界都在談論美國對中國倡議的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（亞投行）的戰略已經失敗。其中出了什麼錯？依我看，有三件事是錯的：

首先，是對當今世界特徵的雙重誤讀：誤讀我們這個時代的主旨，誤讀全球發展趨勢。

上世紀多數時間裡，零和博弈論主導着國際關係。這個世界見證了兩次世界大戰、眾多地區性戰爭和革命。二戰後接踵而來的冷戰，其特點是東西方對峙。換句話說，是美國和蘇聯兩個超級大國的對抗。如果美國羸，就意味着蘇聯輸，反之亦然。但隨着時間推移，世界人民開始對這種緊張感到厭惡和疲憊。到上世紀末，這種博弈論失去了吸引力，逐漸被正和博弈取代，也就是從對峙轉為合作共贏。

這種改變的背後有兩個原因：

全球化。它使各國相互依存，不同國家的利益深深地交織在一起。如果你傷害另一方，那麼你自己也會遭受痛苦。它不再是“我贏你輸”的那種情況。

人類面臨共同挑戰，包括氣候變化、恐怖主義、自然災害、販毒、傳染性疾病，等等。不管國家多麼強大，沒有哪個國家能獨自應對這些挑戰。人類為了生存必須團結起來。

世界發展趨勢是什麼呢？今天，我們不再生活在一個單一世界裡，世界正走向多極化。美國不是處在一個命令別國如何做的位置。關係著人類未來的問題要在相關國家中討論並民主解決。美國意識到這種趨勢了嗎？它在努力適應這種趨勢嗎？我希望美國停止對全球發展趨勢的誤讀，並採取行動推動這一趨勢的發展。

其次，是雙重誤判。有些美國人懷疑中國創建亞投行的點子是針對美國。他們斷言新銀行將削弱世界銀行、國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）和亞洲開發銀行，增加中國在亞太地區的影響力。我要提醒這些人，中國是世行、IMF和亞開行成員，怎麼會想傷害這些國際金融機構？中國提出創建亞投行，意圖是促進作為全球增長中心的亞洲的發展。基礎設施對發展至關重要，而亞洲在這方面有巨大需求，2010年到2020年需要8萬億美元。顯然，現有國際金融機構無法滿足這一需求。如果亞洲特別是東亞的基礎設施需求得到滿足，它必然會刺激經濟增長。亞太地區的增長反過來有助於推動美國、歐洲和整個亞非拉地區的增長。如果亞投行被證明是成功的，那麼它無疑將成為正和博弈與合作共贏的經典範例。

第二個誤判，是誤判了美國盟友對“老大哥”的服從程度。冷戰時期，絕大多數美國的盟友堅定站在美國一邊。冷戰結束，這種服從也就消失了。

第三，是雙重誤行。第一個錯誤行為是美國拒不加入亞投行。第二個是它試圖阻攔盟友加入這家即將成立的新銀行。

誤行是誤讀與誤判的邏輯必然。

華盛頓現在應該做什麼？我希望在華盛頓常識會佔上風。人們可以犯錯，沒有人是一貫正確的。當一個人認識到錯誤的時候，聰明的做法就是儘快改正。 中國一直表示加入亞投行的大門是向美國打開的。我希望美國這樣做，這並不丟臉，如果呆在外面才會更加丟臉。現在輪到華盛頓作選擇了。

People around the world are talking about the failure of U.S. strategy with regard to the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) initiated by China. What went wrong? As I see it, three things are wrong:

First, a dual-misreading of the features of today's world: misreading the name of the game of our time and misreading the trend of the global development.

For the most part of the last century, zero-sum game theory dominated international relations. The world witnessed two World Wars, many regional wars, and revolutions. The Cold War followed World War II, featuring East-West confrontation. To put it in other words, it was confrontation between the two superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. If the U.S. won, it would mean Soviet loss and vice versa. But over time, people of the world became sick and tired of the tension. Towards the end of the last century, this game theory lost its appeal and was gradually replaced by the positive-sum game, i.e. from confrontation to win-win cooperation.

Two factors are behind this change:

1. Globalization. It makes nations deeply interdependent. The interests of different countries are profoundly intertwined. If you try to hurt the other side, you yourself will have to suffer the pain, too. It's no longer a scenario of “I win you lose.”

B. Common challenges facing the mankind. They are climate change, terrorism, natural disasters, drug trafficking, pandemics, etc. No country, no matter how powerful, is able to cope with those challenges alone. The human race is bound to unite for their survival.

What is the trend of the world developments? Today we are no longer living in a uni-polar world. It is moving towards multi-polarity. The U.S. is not in the position to dictate to others how to behave. Issues concerning the future of mankind are to be discussed and resolved democratically among countries involved. Is the U.S. aware of this trend? Does it try to adapt to it? I hope it will stop misreading the trend of the global development and act to push forward this trend.

Second, dual-misjudgment. Some Americans suspect that China's initiative to set up the AIIB is aimed at the U.S. They assert that the new bank would undercut the World Bank, IMF and, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), while increasing China's leverage in the Asia-Pacific region. I would remind those people that China is a member of the World Bank, IMF and ADB. How could China want to hurt these international financial institutions? Its intention in proposing to launch the AIIB is to generate growth in Asia, the global growth center. Infrastructure is the key to the growth and Asia's demand in this respect is huge, about 8 trillion U.S. dollars from 2015 to 2020. Obviously, the existing international financial institutions are not able to meet this demand. If the infrastructure demand in Asia, especially East Asia, is met, it is bound to stimulate growth. Growth in the Asia-Pacific region will in turn help generate growth in the U.S., Europe, the whole of Asia, Africa and Latin America. If the AIIB proves to be a success story, it will surely become a classic example of positive-sum game and win-win cooperation.

The second misjudgment concerns the degree of obedience of U.S. allies to their “big brother”. During the Cold War period, most US allies stood firmly by the US side. The Cold War being over, gone with it is that kind of obedience.

Third, dual-misbehavior. The first instance of misbehavior is the U.S. refusal to join the AIIB. The second instance of misbehavior was an attempt to prevent U.S. allies from joining the would-be new bank.

Misbehavior is the logical consequence of misreading and misjudging.

What should Washington do now? I hope that common sense will prevail in Washington. People can make mistakes. No one is infallible. When one realizes one's mistake, the smartest thing to do is to correct it as soon as possible. China keeps saying that the door is open for the U.S. to join in the AIIB. I hope U.S. will do it. This is not a matter of losing face. If you stay out, you would lose more face. It's up to Washington to make the choice.